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Tag Archives: consumer
Decrease in Consumer Spending Alarm Goes Off.
I’ve hinted many times over the years that the most robust leading indicator is the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing index. Last Friday, the report was – not surprisingly – dismal. May is likely to be even worse. We’re … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged consumer, economic data, ISM, recession, services, spending
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Consumer Sentiment – down but still not down enough.
Over many years I’ve marveled at how reliable consumer sentiment has been as a contrarian indicator. When it reaches rock bottom then the markets, followed by the economy begin to recover from a crisis – whether a recession or financial. … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged bond market, confidence, consumer, consumption, economic data, economy, Index, indicators, maverickinvestors, recession, stock market, unemployment
2 Comments
When Consumer is Happy, Markets are High Risk
Consumer sentiment is usually considered an economic leading indicator. When confidence is at rock bottom levels, it’s a sign that the economy and stocks markets are heading lower. This isn’t true. I’ve published for years that consumer confidence is one … Continue reading
Posted in bonds, markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged bonds, confidence, consumer, Index, maverickinvestors, sentiment, spooner, stocks
1 Comment
Since when is the weather an economic barometer? Absurd!
Most of the economic data we’ve been seeing (don’t forget it’s historical data) belies the common thinking that the weather has been dampening economic growth. The just reported U.S. GDP revision for the 4th quarter (up from 2.4% to 2.6%) … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged confidence, consumer, contrarian, economy, GDP, housing, indicator, industrial, investors, jobless, malvin, market, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, monetary, mortgage, overvalued, production, rates, slump, spooner, stimulus, stock, tapering, unemployment, weakness, weather
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High Consumer Confidence is bad news for stock market!
The latest consumer confidence release shows a significant improvement. “Rising home prices and a rising stock market are two key factors that are boosting consumer confidence. And a third factor is rising strength in the jobs market. The consumer confidence … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged 500, bearish, bubble, bullish, confidence, consumer, economy, employment, equities, finance, housing, Index, indicator, interest, investors, mal, malvinspooner, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, money.ca, overvalued, prices, rates, risk, s&p, spooner, unemployment
5 Comments
Correction done? Don’t bet on it!
On March 20th, I published the following quote in my regular money.ca blog entitled: Reacting to headlines is perilous! Most worrisome: Jim Cramer (wait long enough and you’ll eventually be right) is more wound up than a four-year old high … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged behavioural, benchmark, biases, bond, bubble, bubbles, bullish, consumer, correction, earnings, easy money, fair value, fed, financial, fundamentals, GDP, Index, invesment, investors, mal, malvin, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors.ca, money.ca, optimistic, performance, risk, s&p, S&P500, sentiment, spooner, stocks, World, yields
3 Comments
Bonds at risk, inflation threat and stocks fully valued!
In mid-October the S&P 500 Index was at 1428.50 and I suggested (despite all the pessimism at that time) that if rates and inflation remained steady we could see the index move 20% higher. To be precise I reasoned: For … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged bonds, china, confidence, consumer, corporate, earnings, europe, expectations, growth, Index, inflation, interest rates, investment, investor, markets, money, P/E, S&P 500, stock, supply, treasuries, unemployment
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Beware a Confident Consumer – bound to be disappointed!
I’ve written before (many times) about the fact that strong consumer confidence is not at all good for the markets. You must have heard the news: “The Consumer Confidence Index increased in November and is now at its highest level in more … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged confidence, consumer, earnings, economic data, investors, malvin, malvinspooner, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, optimism, peaks, pessimism, spooner, stock, stocks, valuation, valuations
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Olympic Rally or the Real McCoy?
Back in early June, I posted Yogi Berra – as good an investment strategist as any! in which I suggested : “If financial turmoil continues unabated and rates remain extremely low, things could go very well for the stock markets, especially … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged 500, bloomberg, bonds, confidence, consensus, consumer, data, demand, divdends, duress, earnings, economists, equity, europe's, financial, futures, global, Indices, interest, investors, low, mal, malvin, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, mortgage, olympics, prime, profitability, rallly, rates, s&p, spooner, stock, treasuries, turmoil, U.S. homes, unemployment, yield
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