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Tag Archives: expectations
Are markets in denial? Recent history in one chart!
Are we and the stock market in denial? Talk of a ‘double-dip’ recession seemed to grow quieter once the correction I predicted back in January ran its course and the market headed to new highs. I still adhere to my … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged assets, bernanke, bonds, bullish, china, consumers, corporate, crisis, curve, curves, debt, deflation, earnings, economies, economy, equities, europe, European, expectations, fed, federal, inflation, interest, investor, liquidity, long, mal, malvin, margin, market, markets, maturity, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, profitability, QE, quantitative, rates, reserve, risky, s&p, short, sloping, spooner, stock, tapering, treasuries, treasury, yellen, yield
1 Comment
First a correction; and then another banner year for stock markets!
It shouldn’t be surprising that the current ‘mood’ just oozes caution. The market is kind of like the bear (I met one face-to-face in Alaska many moons ago while fishing in ‘his‘ creek) – at one moment the bear seems content and … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged 500, adams, assets, bond, bonds, bubble, china, commodity, discount, earnings, economic, estimate, expectations, fair, gina, gold, Index, inflation, interest rates, investors, ISM, mal, malvinspooner, market, martin, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, momentum, optimism, overvalued, P/E, premium, price to value ratio, Price/Earnings, prices, ratio, revisions, risky, s&p, S&P500, spooner, stock, tapering, undervalued, value, yield
8 Comments
Everyone expects a correction; they just haven’t caused one yet!
The release of data that is unexpected can be disruptive to markets as we’ve just experienced, but what causes even more volatility is the impact of surprising data releases on investor expectations. Bear markets caused by recessions are easier to … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged ADP, Bear, bubble, commerce, correction, data, department, dividend, employment, expectations, factory, federal, Index, industrial, Institute of Supply Management, inventories, investor, investors, ISM, jobs, mal, malvin, manufacturing, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, orders, PMI, post-crisis, production, pullback, recessions, reserve, shipments, slowdown, spooner, strategists, system, yield
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Bonds at risk, inflation threat and stocks fully valued!
In mid-October the S&P 500 Index was at 1428.50 and I suggested (despite all the pessimism at that time) that if rates and inflation remained steady we could see the index move 20% higher. To be precise I reasoned: For … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged bonds, china, confidence, consumer, corporate, earnings, europe, expectations, growth, Index, inflation, interest rates, investment, investor, markets, money, P/E, S&P 500, stock, supply, treasuries, unemployment
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Why the price of gold skyrocketed and why it’s over!
Everyone is fascinated by the yellow metal. I’ve been to exploration sites as far north as Nunavut (by the Arctic Ocean) and south to operating mines in Chile. But determining what it’s worth remains a conundrum to all of us. The price … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged bonds, bullion, credit, demand, expectations, fund, funds, gold, government, history, inflation, interest, investors, liqidity, malvin, malvinspooner, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, monetary, money, mutual, policy, price, rally, rates, resources, spooner, treasuries, US$
11 Comments
Great News! The consumer is miserable and shopping!
On August 31st, when we learned that consumer confidence had plummeted to rock bottom levels, I said (in the posting Consumer – lower confidence is GOOD news!): “What’s important, is that optimism concerning stock markets is far more warranted when … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged allocation, asset, automotive, cash, confidence, consensus, consumer, equities, equity, expectations, expert, housing, investors, mal, malvin, market, maverick, optimism, rally, spooner, starts, stock
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Time to buy resource stocks again?
Resources to start Rockin’ Again? I think so. A year or two before the resources fund I launched (long gone now) would start a steady climb towards the #1 spot in those performance charts, the mood was just like it … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged bank, china, coal, commodities, company, copper, debt, dividend, economy, europe, expectations, global, gold, growth, guidebook, industrial, insurance, investors, mal, malvin, maverick, nickel, production, resources, sector, spooner, stocks, teck, U.S.$, US$, yield
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China, Commodities, Oil – buy when bad is bad and good is bad!
From Bloomberg: “A Chinese leading indicator climbed for the third straight month, adding to evidence that the world’s second-biggest economy is withstanding Europe’s debt crisis and faltering growth in the U.S.” As crazy as it seems, lately no matter what … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged capital, china, Chinese, coal, commodities, copper, crude, demand, Department of Energy, economy, expectations, expense, global, growth, indicator, investors, iron, libya, mal, malvin, market, maverick, nickel, oil, OPEC, pennsylvania, price, rally, recovery, rockefeller, spooner, standard, stock, stocks, supply, U.S.$
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Robust earnings, slower economic growth, FED benign…what to do?
Biker signal for “Slow Down” “WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth likely braked sharply in the first quarter as higher food and gasoline prices crimped consumer spending, but the setback will probably be fleeting given a firming … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged cash, commodities, consumer, corporate, earnings, economy, estate, expectations, foreclosure, foreseeable, future, gasoline, gold, good, guidebook, Index, inflation, interest, investors, ISM, jobs, mal, malvin, markets, maverick, NASDAQ, optimistic, prices, rates, real, reports, sectors, short, slowdown, spending, spooner, stock, stocks, tech, term, unemployment, USA
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