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Monthly Archives: February 2012
Fund flows point to continued strength in global equity markets!
Back in September I suggested that my favourite contrary leading indicator – the weighting devoted to equities by institutional investors – was pointing to an imminent rally in stock markets. Once again it proved robust. But what’s happened since then? … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged active, allocation, asset, assets, balanced, bonds, britain, cash, crisis, debt, diversification, equities, eurozone, fund, funds, indicators, industry, investor, investors, ISM, lemmings, mal, malvin, management, managers, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, mix, money, mutual, passive, professional, sovereign, spooner, stocks, weight, yield
1 Comment
OIL price already well on its way to my forecast $120 WTI.
As is often the case, once you recognize an opportunity it begins to run away from you…unless you act quickly. Almost immediately after I published a comment about oil prices rising in the late spring they headed north. This is why investment committees (requiring consensus or third party approval) … Continue reading
GOLD? How to avoid BAD timing!
I deal with the sensitive issue of ‘timing’ in both my books, and many (if not all) of my commentaries on this Website. One of the key warning signs I presented last year was when bigger organizations (usually run by … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged asset, banks, bullion, business, central, financial, fund, funds, gold, invest, investors, launch, mal, management, markets, maverickinvestors, maverickinvestors.com, performance, price, spooner, stocks, theme
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Fairfax – Folly of Risk Management Part Deux!
A mere three days after publishing my brief rant about The Folly of Risk Management we learned that Fairfax Financial Holdings lost a chunk of money on their investments because of the hedges in place. To be fair, these same … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged allocation, asset, bet, collapse, commoidty, earnings, Fairfax, financial, gas, hedges, hedging, investments, leveraged, loss, mal, malvin, management, market, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors, natural, performance, prem, profits, risk, risky, securties, shares, spooner, stock, watsa
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The FOLLY of Risk Management
Every closet economist knows that risk is the most difficult concept to put a number to. Most modelling relies on various (historic or predicted) estimates of volatility, but volatility is a very funny thing. We often forget, especially during economic … Continue reading
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