Tag Archives: bond market

Why Warren Buffett’s Moves are Bewildering.

Everyone is confused – He bought a bunch of airlines at their peak, and sold them all (was the normally undaunted investor suddenly in a panic?) at the bottom.  “Fear is the most contagious disease you can imagine…” said Buffett … Continue reading

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Consumer Sentiment – down but still not down enough.

Over many years I’ve marveled at how reliable consumer sentiment has been as a contrarian indicator.  When it reaches rock bottom then the markets, followed by the economy begin to recover from a crisis – whether a recession or financial.  … Continue reading

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Credit Shock due to COVID-19 Unprecedented

This quote is the latest from Moody’s: The credit shock created by the coronavirus pandemic is completely unprecedented, given the number of geographies and industries affected, and the lack of clarity as to when the economic implications of the pandemic … Continue reading

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Corporate Bonds not out of the woods yet!

We’ve watched a bit of a bear market rally in stocks, but also saw the same short term narrowing of corporate bond spreads (the difference between the yield offered by corporate bonds versus the virtually risk-free government bonds or treasuries).  … Continue reading

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Optimism markets will rebound fast is just wrong!

Apparently Goldman strategists expect profits for companies in the S&P 500 will decline 33% this year, and rebound 55% next year.  It implies a V-shaped recovery.  Let’s forget that 2021 is a long way off and that their guess is … Continue reading

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What a ‘tsunami’ of mutual fund redemptions will mean for markets.

Having founded and managed a mutual fund company, I can see the writing on the wall.  A wave of ETF selling has taken place (and will likely continue) because it’s easy to pull the trigger on a publicly traded fund.  … Continue reading

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The bonds that can lose your money!

I mentioned in an earlier article, published Feb. 24th, that even bonds and bond ETF’s are at risk in the current environment; primarily due to a phenomenon know as a widening of credit spreads.  This is happening in a big … Continue reading

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Why the market carnage? It’s expecting a period of “inflession” (I invented the word).

I’ve invented a new word for what’s coming: Inflession (add to dictionary) is a combination of recession and inflation, characterized by low unemployment and very low interest rates. Sound strange?  The yield curve warned us months ago (when first inverted) … Continue reading

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ls it the perfect storm? Did someone hit the sell everything button?

U.S. fund manager Peter Tchir sent a note to his clients entitled: “Did Someone Hit the Sell Everything Button?” His biggest concern (and everyone’s) is the sudden change in behavior – panic selling. Younger money managers likely haven’t experienced the … Continue reading

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Bonds (ETF’s, Mutual Funds) at Risk even in a Recession

It’s very difficult to teach young adults about how bonds work – although I believe I’ve done a pretty good job of it.  It’s even more difficult to educate adults that had an aversion to math when they were at … Continue reading

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