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Monthly Archives: April 2020
US Energy Self-Sufficient – But for how long?
According to the Energy Information Administration, the US is more than self-sufficient when it comes to energy. For the first time in a very long time, production of energy (all sources) exceeded consumption in 2019. What we do know is … Continue reading
Posted in GOLD & COMMODITIES, Random Thoughts
Tagged coal, energy, gas, oil prices, OPEC, production, supply
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Consumer Sentiment – down but still not down enough.
Over many years I’ve marveled at how reliable consumer sentiment has been as a contrarian indicator. When it reaches rock bottom then the markets, followed by the economy begin to recover from a crisis – whether a recession or financial. … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged bond market, confidence, consumer, consumption, economic data, economy, Index, indicators, maverickinvestors, recession, stock market, unemployment
2 Comments
How bad is it for energy sector? Real bad and getting worse!
When I published “Oil Stocks Should Continue To Be Avoided” on SeekingAlpha.com (March 6th) I was surprised by this comment from a reader: XOM hasn’t cut their dividend for 37 years. CVX hasn’t cut their dividend for 32 years. This … Continue reading
Posted in GOLD & COMMODITIES, Random Thoughts
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Corporate Bonds not out of the woods yet!
We’ve watched a bit of a bear market rally in stocks, but also saw the same short term narrowing of corporate bond spreads (the difference between the yield offered by corporate bonds versus the virtually risk-free government bonds or treasuries). … Continue reading
Posted in bonds, Random Thoughts
Tagged bearish, bond market, bondholders, bonds, corporate, debt, earnings, economic data, economy, maverickinvestors, recession, recovery, spreads, stock market, treasuries
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Why the S&P 500 should fall another 10% to 20%.
The risk of being so right in one’s projections (I called this meltdown months ago) is you begin to second guess yourself – maybe now I should turn bullish? The recent rally (which I covered in my “It’s a Trap” … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged bearish, coronavirus, correction, earnings, forecast, Index, maverickinvestors, prediction, price-to-earnings, S&P 500, stock market
2 Comments
Funeral Stocks – one of the few businesses still operating.
Typically lower beta stocks, the death care industry stocks have sold off with the rest of the market, and although revenues from services are being squeezed by social distancing, it is likely that funeral services and memorials are being postponed … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts, stocks
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Fund flows drive markets, and they suggest many months of misery.
Having (with partners) founded and managed a mutual fund company, I can share some insights when it comes to timing markets. Some say it’s impossible, but the data (and experience) suggest otherwise. For instance, just before the COVID-19 mayhem which … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts, stocks
Tagged bearish, coronavirus, flows, funds, inflows, maverickinvestors, mutual funds, recession, recovery, redemptions, spooner, stock market
4 Comments
Private Equity/Debt Cockroaches emerging.
I published here (in late January) and on SeekingAlpha.com a warning that the surge in private equity (with with emphasis on “private” or illiquid) in the past decade would reek havoc for institutional and individual investors alike. We’re beginning to … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged bearish, coronavirus, debt, equity, funding, funds, liquidity, private, selling, stock market, valuation
2 Comments
How long before this bear market hibernates again?
Most of what I read suggests we’re experiencing a Bear Market rally, and that it will be short-lived. A very respected strategist friend of mind put it this way: It remains our view that stock markets will return to test … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged Bear, bearish, economy, interest rates, markets, maverickinvestors, recession, spooner, stock market, stocks
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